The causing factors to this climate problem are revealed through shocking statistics of fossil fuel consumption. It is estimated that oil could be depleted in about 42 years and natural gas in about 64.
This fossil fuel consumption is not being helped by the increase in aircraft use. Friends of the earth research based on government data indicates that climate change pollution from aircraft is set to soar by 350%. With carbon dioxide being the main cause of climate change the government forecasts that the C02 from aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 70-80 million tonnes by 2027. And with airport expansion the carbon dioxide pollution from the aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 79,770 tonnes by 2027.
These factors combined will have consequences, the Washing post reports that the gradual melting of polar ice will raise sea levels taking up land therefore displacing tens of million people around the world. For example places like Florida, the Gulf Coast and Maryland would completely disappear (see figure 12). Hurricanes and storms would become more severe and more frequent (see figure 13) and water would slowly diminish as rivers become warmer and evaporation increases. This would then have a knock on effect to agriculture, as forest fires would increase, with wildlife and vegetation varnishing or relocating. Finally as this migration to different places happens, disease will move with them causing a dramatic decrease in public health.
Figure 12: This could become a common sight of the future with land constantly being lost to the sea.
Figure 13: could this be the normal view from the sky in the future?
Looking at the factor of fires and flooding, hotter summer days are predicted worldwide in the future. An article by Kevin Hennessy from newswire suggests that the number of very hot summer days in places such as Australia could double by 2030.
“By the year 2030, we expect most of Australia to become 0.4 to 2.0°C warmer on average, with 10 to 50 percent more summer days over 35°C.”
Hennessy.
These new temperatures will then have a knock on effect to the seasonal products and services we require, for example winter heating will not be a necessity which could help in the fight to conserve energy. DR Tolhurst suggests that precautions need to be taken now to ensure a safe future. For example water demand, drought tolerant crops, adjusting farming dates in the calendar and heat-smart buildings are just a few things to be considered. Although it is not only us humans who will suffer through climate change, animals and plants will struggle too as Hennessy suggests:
“However, some animals and plants may be highly vulnerable to climate change, with limited options for adaptation. For example, coral reefs are likely to experience more bleaching, and some Western Australian frogs and east Australian alpine mammals will find their habitats shrinking as the temperature rises.”
Southeast Asia will also come under threat by rising sea levels eating up the coast. Scientists believe that higher temperatures will cause a sea level rise of about 20cm by the year 2027 and 65cm by the end of the century. This destruction to coastlines would have a negative effect on tourism as the disappearance of beaches would decrease the desirability of the area, and this important source of earnings would then be lost.
Sticking with the implications of climate change in this particular region it has also been suggested that the higher temperatures and rainfall patterns would probably reduce rice production. Malaysian rice yields could fall by around 20%. In turn if changing patterns of production in other countries did not compensate for this shortfall, the world price of rice would definitely increase. This is due to Thailand currently accounting for about one third of the international market. In the Southeast Asia region a slight change in the environment could have serious social consequences. For example if local farmers and fisherman cannot afford to adapt to these changes they may think about relocating, causing further problems to the area. This spontaneous migration could result in widespread destitution further harming the environment.
Figure 14:Climate prediction web site
In 1999 scientist Myles Allen suggested to run a simulation of climate, many times like they do with the weather. This initially thought then came out to produce the most detailed climate projection ever undertaken (see figure 14). It required people to volunteer to leave their computers on for 6 months to run the model. Twenty thousand people joined within a couple of days with then the BBC backing some research.
Using this model he has come out with consequences for Britain and how climate change will affect us. His findings seem to back up previous forecasts on climate change, for example the model came out with the prediction that the hot summer of 2003 is 25 times more likely to recur by 2020. Again it is suggested that living with climate change will be expensive as farmers have to adapt and changes made to cope. If you look at the previous problem faced by Southeast Asia and tourism, the model suggests that the British seaside could become more popular not only as the sea takes more land but with tourists avoiding the immense heat of over places.
