Images and data
Fig 1: Carbon emission sinks. http://www.treehugger.com
Fig 2: A graph to show increase in travel demand. http://www.dft.gov.uk/consultation/archive/2002
Fig 3: A graph to show the aging population of the future. http://www.hsmv.state.fl.us/dal/growth.JPG
Fig 4: A few of the fast food outlets adding to the problem. http://www.logoblog.org/wp-images/fast-food-logos.gif
Fig 5: Cosmetic surgery used as a fashion accessory. http://www.benettontalk.com
Fig 6: A nano tube paper battery. http://www.intomobile.com/wp_content/uploads/2007/08/nanotube
Fig 7: A chip embedded into a trainer. http://www.content.answers.com/main/content/img
Fig 8: A tracking smart tag of the future. http://www.media.komotv.com/image/stock
Fig 9: Possible costs of a new carbon tax. http://www.sedac.ciesm.org/mva/iamcc.tg
Fig 10: Fears of a big brother reality. http://www.form2.static.flickr.com
Fig 11: Could increased security prove too much? http://www.defenestrator.org
Fig 12: This could become a common sight of the future with land constantly being lost to the sea. http://rosacassells.blogspot.com
Fig 13: Could this be the normal view from the sky in the future? http://www.nashville.gov/images
Fig 14: Climate prediction web site. http://www.climateprediction.net
Fig 15: A smart building. http://www.neublack.com/tag/Green+Design
Fig 16: Walled cities of future. http://www.psfk.com/…/space-as-scarcity
Fig 17: Adverts are personalised to you, picking up on your data. http://www.blog.coolzor.com/images
Fig 18: Smart self cleaning glass. http://litracon.hv/images/products/litracube-main.jpg
Fig 19: Map representing online communities. http://www.imgd.xkcd.com/comics/online.communities.png
2.1.08
Bibliography
CLIMATE
Allen, Myles (2002) Internet sources on climate forecasts of the future. Available from:
http://www.climatepredicition.net
Lewis, Roger (2006) Internet sources on sustainable architecture of future. Available from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/06/09/AR2006060900710_pf.html
Smith, Lewis (2005) Internet sources on global warming forecasts. Available from: http://www.timesonlone.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science
Williams, Simon (2007) Internet sources on friends of the earth research on future airplane emissions. Available from: http://www.foe.co.uk
POLITICS
DeLong, Brad (2007) Internet sources of the new taxes of 2027. Available from: http://www.generationrisk.blogs.money.cnn.com
Rich, Sarah (2007) Internet sources on walled cities of sustainability. Available from: http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/006717.html
Various (2004) Internet sources on airplane emissions of future. Available from: http://www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Various (2004) Internet sources on power of China on 2020. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Various (2007) Internet sources on the future of globalisation. Available from: http://www.sriworld.com/socialfunds.com
ECONOMY
Aaronovitch, David (2004) Internet sources on a better society in 2020. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Faculty at University of Texas (2006) Internet sources o thoughts about the future of advertising. Available from: http://www.ciadvertising.org/studies/reports
Reader, John (2004) Internet sources on expanding cities. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Various (2007) Internet sources on top ten forecasts of 2007. Available from http://www.wfs.org/forecasts.htm
Various (2003) Internet sources on general future forecasts. Available from: http://www.popficition.com/SF2003/aty
Various (2004) Internet sources on transport and immigration. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
HEALTH
Bhattacharya, Jay (2004) Internet sources on disability of future. Available from: http://www.works.com/dana_goldman/9/
Boseley, Sarah (2004) Internet sources on obesity epidemic in 2020. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Lashmar, Paul (2004) Internet sources on health checks of future. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Parry, Vivienne (2004) Internet sources on plastic surgery. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
TECHNOLOGY
Millet, Stephen (2004) Internet sources on Battelle’s forecasts for future technology. Available from: http://www.battelle.org/new/99/2020forecast.html
Various (2008) Internet sources on new technology. Available from: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6189.html
Various (2004) Internet sources on media technologies of 2027. Available from: http://www.tomorrowproject.net
Various (2005) Internet sources on Artificial Intelligence. Available from: http://www.act.nato/events/seminars
ARTICLES
Grace, John (Oct 23, 2007) EU Changes, Guardian newspaper pp. 2- 3
Jon Steel (1998) Truth, Lies & Advertising New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Roland T. Rust and Richard W. Oliver (1994) The Death of Advertising
Journal of Advertising, 23(4): 71-77.
BOOKS
Cappo, Joe (2003) The future of advertising Crain communications
Fowles, Jib (1976) Mass advertising as social forecast: a method for futures research London: Greenwood press
Mathiesan, Rick (2005) Branding unbound Amacom
Allen, Myles (2002) Internet sources on climate forecasts of the future. Available from:
http://www.climatepredicition.net
Lewis, Roger (2006) Internet sources on sustainable architecture of future. Available from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/06/09/AR2006060900710_pf.html
Smith, Lewis (2005) Internet sources on global warming forecasts. Available from: http://www.timesonlone.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science
Williams, Simon (2007) Internet sources on friends of the earth research on future airplane emissions. Available from: http://www.foe.co.uk
POLITICS
DeLong, Brad (2007) Internet sources of the new taxes of 2027. Available from: http://www.generationrisk.blogs.money.cnn.com
Rich, Sarah (2007) Internet sources on walled cities of sustainability. Available from: http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/006717.html
Various (2004) Internet sources on airplane emissions of future. Available from: http://www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Various (2004) Internet sources on power of China on 2020. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Various (2007) Internet sources on the future of globalisation. Available from: http://www.sriworld.com/socialfunds.com
ECONOMY
Aaronovitch, David (2004) Internet sources on a better society in 2020. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Faculty at University of Texas (2006) Internet sources o thoughts about the future of advertising. Available from: http://www.ciadvertising.org/studies/reports
Reader, John (2004) Internet sources on expanding cities. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Various (2007) Internet sources on top ten forecasts of 2007. Available from http://www.wfs.org/forecasts.htm
Various (2003) Internet sources on general future forecasts. Available from: http://www.popficition.com/SF2003/aty
Various (2004) Internet sources on transport and immigration. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
HEALTH
Bhattacharya, Jay (2004) Internet sources on disability of future. Available from: http://www.works.com/dana_goldman/9/
Boseley, Sarah (2004) Internet sources on obesity epidemic in 2020. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Lashmar, Paul (2004) Internet sources on health checks of future. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
Parry, Vivienne (2004) Internet sources on plastic surgery. Available from: http://www.guardian.co.uk
TECHNOLOGY
Millet, Stephen (2004) Internet sources on Battelle’s forecasts for future technology. Available from: http://www.battelle.org/new/99/2020forecast.html
Various (2008) Internet sources on new technology. Available from: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6189.html
Various (2004) Internet sources on media technologies of 2027. Available from: http://www.tomorrowproject.net
Various (2005) Internet sources on Artificial Intelligence. Available from: http://www.act.nato/events/seminars
ARTICLES
Grace, John (Oct 23, 2007) EU Changes, Guardian newspaper pp. 2- 3
Jon Steel (1998) Truth, Lies & Advertising New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Roland T. Rust and Richard W. Oliver (1994) The Death of Advertising
Journal of Advertising, 23(4): 71-77.
BOOKS
Cappo, Joe (2003) The future of advertising Crain communications
Fowles, Jib (1976) Mass advertising as social forecast: a method for futures research London: Greenwood press
Mathiesan, Rick (2005) Branding unbound Amacom
Conclusion:In future advertising by what means and media will we communicate with the rich living in the supercities and poor in the shantytowns?
In the year 2027 people will want raw space more than anything, which they can decided on how to use themselves. This need echoes the self built shanty towns of today, of course with wireless technology added enabling people to shape their own lifestyles. As people within the supercity demand a higher level of technology wireless advertising will become more popular, with one alteration. Wireless advertising is effective in delivering adverts to mobile devices using a wireless network. This new media channel provides a number of unique characteristics that do not exist in traditional and current advertising media. It is accessible, personal and location aware, however this type of advertising can be highly intrusive. The people in the cities have access to an enormous amount of information now and cannot be patronised, as they are more aware than ever of advertising strategies. And so wireless advertising will have to give people the choice whether or not to receive the advertising with an option to bypass. However this would not create a problem in the futures advertising as people have a growing thirst for new technology and information and with the lack of in your face advertising and with limited press available people will tend to opt to receive it.
These walled cities will host luxurious things like movies and other sources of entertainment that people really value as the demand for personal entertainment will be high. For example from cloned human organs, to personalised public transportation to computers and sensors embedded in our bodies, we will become intertwined with technology. So all future advertising here will have to adapt and take place within the Internet and these new technologies.
There will be no billboards or press advertising as this will be left to the surrounding shanty towns as although security will be greatly enforced people will demand a certain level of privacy and exclusion. We will look at the traditional press advertising of newspapers and billboards and be unimpressed with this ever-direct approach to advertising and know it is not genuine. Consumers within these cities have changed and with people are no longer hanging out in the same places as the environment and technology has advanced advertising will have to change. Things such as television advertising will no longer be acceptable as people live in an on demand self selected world, where people want advertising on their own terms.
People will live online with everything revolving around computers and the Internet. With the popularity of online worlds such as second life climbing, advertising through gaming will also become more popular. Companies will use world like Second Life for marketing purposes to increase their brand value they will be able to conduct image advertising among potential customers, whether it is through posters or billboards in the world.
Serious writers will be able to enter this world although will have to ditch traditional press media in favour of “Internet media cities”. The people in these cities will be further informed having a greater access to information supplied by the Internet, whereas those on the outside will be conveniently shielded from this view. Those on the outside in the shantytowns will contain all those people who we have set aside not to live with, the socially undesirable. These people will consist of those of an older generation, the poor and immigrants brought in to perform the menial jobs that sustain the lifestyles of the privileged, making the population of these shantytowns a mixed one, more culturally diverse. Therefore the media used to reach this audience has to be image based and simplified to ensure it reaches the mass audience. Print media will be used, for example billboard, press, TV and poster which will be seen by all and more importantly show a considerable difference between what the privileged and poor get. The use of print media such as newspapers ensures that the same piece of information goes to every reader unlike the advertising within the privileged cities that will be personalised to each individuals own tastes.
As well as the media used to advertise being different in the walled cities and shantytowns; another main difference will be the power of choice. For example those living in the privileged cities will have access to many different new media channels, wireless technology and internet blogs which through personal use can have the ability to change peoples worlds and surroundings. Although cleverly filtered personalised advertisements are selected by the reader to feel like they are in control of their decisions.
Those in the shantytowns, the socially undesirable are treated all the same. Advertising is set to one target audience, with no personal preferences taken into consideration. Less money is spent on advertising hear as agencies can get away with more basic and simplified messages. This sounds as if it would be unsuccessful, however this type of print media will prove promising in this environment for a number of reasons. One being that unlike those of the walled cities, the poor will socially interact more with face to face meetings due to lesser technology. This will allow mouth of mouth to spread, which has to be one of the most powerful forms of advertising.
Newspapers although of poor quality will still exist in the shantytowns, with the revenue being the driver for many web sites as there are today. Print advertising in the shanty towns will prove profitable, allowing large companies to benefit from both Internet and print advertising in both worlds. Print will be aimed at the locals within the surrounding towns and web advertising will reach a global audience providing more information and feedback to the companies. The web and blogs will target specific consumers, which are in turn more likely to respond.
These walled cities will host luxurious things like movies and other sources of entertainment that people really value as the demand for personal entertainment will be high. For example from cloned human organs, to personalised public transportation to computers and sensors embedded in our bodies, we will become intertwined with technology. So all future advertising here will have to adapt and take place within the Internet and these new technologies.
There will be no billboards or press advertising as this will be left to the surrounding shanty towns as although security will be greatly enforced people will demand a certain level of privacy and exclusion. We will look at the traditional press advertising of newspapers and billboards and be unimpressed with this ever-direct approach to advertising and know it is not genuine. Consumers within these cities have changed and with people are no longer hanging out in the same places as the environment and technology has advanced advertising will have to change. Things such as television advertising will no longer be acceptable as people live in an on demand self selected world, where people want advertising on their own terms.
People will live online with everything revolving around computers and the Internet. With the popularity of online worlds such as second life climbing, advertising through gaming will also become more popular. Companies will use world like Second Life for marketing purposes to increase their brand value they will be able to conduct image advertising among potential customers, whether it is through posters or billboards in the world.
Serious writers will be able to enter this world although will have to ditch traditional press media in favour of “Internet media cities”. The people in these cities will be further informed having a greater access to information supplied by the Internet, whereas those on the outside will be conveniently shielded from this view. Those on the outside in the shantytowns will contain all those people who we have set aside not to live with, the socially undesirable. These people will consist of those of an older generation, the poor and immigrants brought in to perform the menial jobs that sustain the lifestyles of the privileged, making the population of these shantytowns a mixed one, more culturally diverse. Therefore the media used to reach this audience has to be image based and simplified to ensure it reaches the mass audience. Print media will be used, for example billboard, press, TV and poster which will be seen by all and more importantly show a considerable difference between what the privileged and poor get. The use of print media such as newspapers ensures that the same piece of information goes to every reader unlike the advertising within the privileged cities that will be personalised to each individuals own tastes.
As well as the media used to advertise being different in the walled cities and shantytowns; another main difference will be the power of choice. For example those living in the privileged cities will have access to many different new media channels, wireless technology and internet blogs which through personal use can have the ability to change peoples worlds and surroundings. Although cleverly filtered personalised advertisements are selected by the reader to feel like they are in control of their decisions.
Those in the shantytowns, the socially undesirable are treated all the same. Advertising is set to one target audience, with no personal preferences taken into consideration. Less money is spent on advertising hear as agencies can get away with more basic and simplified messages. This sounds as if it would be unsuccessful, however this type of print media will prove promising in this environment for a number of reasons. One being that unlike those of the walled cities, the poor will socially interact more with face to face meetings due to lesser technology. This will allow mouth of mouth to spread, which has to be one of the most powerful forms of advertising.
Newspapers although of poor quality will still exist in the shantytowns, with the revenue being the driver for many web sites as there are today. Print advertising in the shanty towns will prove profitable, allowing large companies to benefit from both Internet and print advertising in both worlds. Print will be aimed at the locals within the surrounding towns and web advertising will reach a global audience providing more information and feedback to the companies. The web and blogs will target specific consumers, which are in turn more likely to respond.
Our World in 2020
It is hot and humid and the summer days seem to be endless. Winter is most definitely forgotten about, with tourists flocking to the once milder climate places as much of the coastline has gone. Places such as Florida, the Gulf coast and Maryland have all disappeared.
Water is limited and many once government owned services have been taken over by independent large companies. Prices are high, extortionate in fact and the rich poor divide is massive.
Figure 15: A smart building
1) Wind catcher
2) Solar array
3) Insulation
4) Biomass boiler
We live in heat smart buildings (see figure 15), very Hi Tec with many new energy sources in place as the fossil fuels are now controlled through the new tax system and accessed only through a smart card which only the rich can afford. The rich live in supercities; they are walled safe places with extreme security. These gated communities (see figure 16) divide us from the poor and those of the older generation who have been left stranded in the man made shanty towns. The population is living longer and there are many more old people, but immigrants are ever coming in to the country to look after our old and do the menial jobs no one else wants to do.
Figure 16:Walled cities of future
The government looks after us well; our every move is followed from work to the products we buy. DNA, blood and urine samples are part of everyday tests when going for a job interview or appraisal. Follow up advice and recommendations are then filtered to us through email inboxes and supermarket checkouts when shopping. Advertising finds you (see figure 17) and is very personalised to your tastes and personal needs. Smart tags track us telling of the environmental conditions and change and informing us of purchases.
Figure 17: adverts are personalised to you, picking up on your data
Elsewhere in the world many people have upsticks and migrated to safer places, where vegetation and life is better. Much of South East Asia is baron with the population crowded in one area. Exports from here have risen in price, for example rice due to the unreliable weather changes making farming too difficult for the majority of small town farmers. A shift of power to the east has ensured that today China is at the forefront of our decisions and products. Their values and culture are being bought to the UK as the US falls lower down in the control ranking.
Figure 18: smart self cleaning glass
Technology is undeniably everywhere, robots are the new must have in homes. Nano technology has given us smart materials (see figure 18), for example self cleaning surfaces in homes for extra convenience and in the private hospitals, who have now of course taken all the best consultants and doctors. This technology is highly mobile and people are intertwined with technology, chips are embedded into the body. They monitor constantly enabling us to take our personalised entertainment with us. Computers are everywhere too, leading to a vast range of online communities. Here business is strong and more and more people are isolating themselves in online relationships and groups suited to their own individual needs (see figure 19). This has further divided the rich and poor with new groups forming within existing ones.
Figure 19: Map representing online communities
Due to the popularity of this online existence, we suffer more than ever from mental health illnesses. Although we are obese and have things such as diabetes, we are a stronger as technology has given us a cure for 25% of cancers and many other once life threatening diseases. Through gene technology we can choose what attributes and looks our children have and even have the power to change ourselves through cosmetic surgery, which is now, part of the day to day routine.
Water is limited and many once government owned services have been taken over by independent large companies. Prices are high, extortionate in fact and the rich poor divide is massive.
Figure 15: A smart building
1) Wind catcher
2) Solar array
3) Insulation
4) Biomass boiler
We live in heat smart buildings (see figure 15), very Hi Tec with many new energy sources in place as the fossil fuels are now controlled through the new tax system and accessed only through a smart card which only the rich can afford. The rich live in supercities; they are walled safe places with extreme security. These gated communities (see figure 16) divide us from the poor and those of the older generation who have been left stranded in the man made shanty towns. The population is living longer and there are many more old people, but immigrants are ever coming in to the country to look after our old and do the menial jobs no one else wants to do.
Figure 16:Walled cities of future
The government looks after us well; our every move is followed from work to the products we buy. DNA, blood and urine samples are part of everyday tests when going for a job interview or appraisal. Follow up advice and recommendations are then filtered to us through email inboxes and supermarket checkouts when shopping. Advertising finds you (see figure 17) and is very personalised to your tastes and personal needs. Smart tags track us telling of the environmental conditions and change and informing us of purchases.
Figure 17: adverts are personalised to you, picking up on your data
Elsewhere in the world many people have upsticks and migrated to safer places, where vegetation and life is better. Much of South East Asia is baron with the population crowded in one area. Exports from here have risen in price, for example rice due to the unreliable weather changes making farming too difficult for the majority of small town farmers. A shift of power to the east has ensured that today China is at the forefront of our decisions and products. Their values and culture are being bought to the UK as the US falls lower down in the control ranking.
Figure 18: smart self cleaning glass
Technology is undeniably everywhere, robots are the new must have in homes. Nano technology has given us smart materials (see figure 18), for example self cleaning surfaces in homes for extra convenience and in the private hospitals, who have now of course taken all the best consultants and doctors. This technology is highly mobile and people are intertwined with technology, chips are embedded into the body. They monitor constantly enabling us to take our personalised entertainment with us. Computers are everywhere too, leading to a vast range of online communities. Here business is strong and more and more people are isolating themselves in online relationships and groups suited to their own individual needs (see figure 19). This has further divided the rich and poor with new groups forming within existing ones.
Figure 19: Map representing online communities
Due to the popularity of this online existence, we suffer more than ever from mental health illnesses. Although we are obese and have things such as diabetes, we are a stronger as technology has given us a cure for 25% of cancers and many other once life threatening diseases. Through gene technology we can choose what attributes and looks our children have and even have the power to change ourselves through cosmetic surgery, which is now, part of the day to day routine.
Climate
A basic prediction shared by all is that by the decade 2020 climate change will change due to greenhouse gases trapping solar heat within the atmosphere causing a block preventing heat from radiating back out to space. Therefore causing the temperature of the earth’s water, land and vegetation to rise as the heat is absorbed by its surface.
The causing factors to this climate problem are revealed through shocking statistics of fossil fuel consumption. It is estimated that oil could be depleted in about 42 years and natural gas in about 64.
This fossil fuel consumption is not being helped by the increase in aircraft use. Friends of the earth research based on government data indicates that climate change pollution from aircraft is set to soar by 350%. With carbon dioxide being the main cause of climate change the government forecasts that the C02 from aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 70-80 million tonnes by 2027. And with airport expansion the carbon dioxide pollution from the aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 79,770 tonnes by 2027.
These factors combined will have consequences, the Washing post reports that the gradual melting of polar ice will raise sea levels taking up land therefore displacing tens of million people around the world. For example places like Florida, the Gulf Coast and Maryland would completely disappear (see figure 12). Hurricanes and storms would become more severe and more frequent (see figure 13) and water would slowly diminish as rivers become warmer and evaporation increases. This would then have a knock on effect to agriculture, as forest fires would increase, with wildlife and vegetation varnishing or relocating. Finally as this migration to different places happens, disease will move with them causing a dramatic decrease in public health.
Figure 12: This could become a common sight of the future with land constantly being lost to the sea.
Figure 13: could this be the normal view from the sky in the future?
Looking at the factor of fires and flooding, hotter summer days are predicted worldwide in the future. An article by Kevin Hennessy from newswire suggests that the number of very hot summer days in places such as Australia could double by 2030.
“By the year 2030, we expect most of Australia to become 0.4 to 2.0°C warmer on average, with 10 to 50 percent more summer days over 35°C.”
Hennessy.
These new temperatures will then have a knock on effect to the seasonal products and services we require, for example winter heating will not be a necessity which could help in the fight to conserve energy. DR Tolhurst suggests that precautions need to be taken now to ensure a safe future. For example water demand, drought tolerant crops, adjusting farming dates in the calendar and heat-smart buildings are just a few things to be considered. Although it is not only us humans who will suffer through climate change, animals and plants will struggle too as Hennessy suggests:
“However, some animals and plants may be highly vulnerable to climate change, with limited options for adaptation. For example, coral reefs are likely to experience more bleaching, and some Western Australian frogs and east Australian alpine mammals will find their habitats shrinking as the temperature rises.”
Southeast Asia will also come under threat by rising sea levels eating up the coast. Scientists believe that higher temperatures will cause a sea level rise of about 20cm by the year 2027 and 65cm by the end of the century. This destruction to coastlines would have a negative effect on tourism as the disappearance of beaches would decrease the desirability of the area, and this important source of earnings would then be lost.
Sticking with the implications of climate change in this particular region it has also been suggested that the higher temperatures and rainfall patterns would probably reduce rice production. Malaysian rice yields could fall by around 20%. In turn if changing patterns of production in other countries did not compensate for this shortfall, the world price of rice would definitely increase. This is due to Thailand currently accounting for about one third of the international market. In the Southeast Asia region a slight change in the environment could have serious social consequences. For example if local farmers and fisherman cannot afford to adapt to these changes they may think about relocating, causing further problems to the area. This spontaneous migration could result in widespread destitution further harming the environment.
Figure 14:Climate prediction web site
In 1999 scientist Myles Allen suggested to run a simulation of climate, many times like they do with the weather. This initially thought then came out to produce the most detailed climate projection ever undertaken (see figure 14). It required people to volunteer to leave their computers on for 6 months to run the model. Twenty thousand people joined within a couple of days with then the BBC backing some research.
Using this model he has come out with consequences for Britain and how climate change will affect us. His findings seem to back up previous forecasts on climate change, for example the model came out with the prediction that the hot summer of 2003 is 25 times more likely to recur by 2020. Again it is suggested that living with climate change will be expensive as farmers have to adapt and changes made to cope. If you look at the previous problem faced by Southeast Asia and tourism, the model suggests that the British seaside could become more popular not only as the sea takes more land but with tourists avoiding the immense heat of over places.
The causing factors to this climate problem are revealed through shocking statistics of fossil fuel consumption. It is estimated that oil could be depleted in about 42 years and natural gas in about 64.
This fossil fuel consumption is not being helped by the increase in aircraft use. Friends of the earth research based on government data indicates that climate change pollution from aircraft is set to soar by 350%. With carbon dioxide being the main cause of climate change the government forecasts that the C02 from aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 70-80 million tonnes by 2027. And with airport expansion the carbon dioxide pollution from the aircraft using UK airports is expected to rise to 79,770 tonnes by 2027.
These factors combined will have consequences, the Washing post reports that the gradual melting of polar ice will raise sea levels taking up land therefore displacing tens of million people around the world. For example places like Florida, the Gulf Coast and Maryland would completely disappear (see figure 12). Hurricanes and storms would become more severe and more frequent (see figure 13) and water would slowly diminish as rivers become warmer and evaporation increases. This would then have a knock on effect to agriculture, as forest fires would increase, with wildlife and vegetation varnishing or relocating. Finally as this migration to different places happens, disease will move with them causing a dramatic decrease in public health.
Figure 12: This could become a common sight of the future with land constantly being lost to the sea.
Figure 13: could this be the normal view from the sky in the future?
Looking at the factor of fires and flooding, hotter summer days are predicted worldwide in the future. An article by Kevin Hennessy from newswire suggests that the number of very hot summer days in places such as Australia could double by 2030.
“By the year 2030, we expect most of Australia to become 0.4 to 2.0°C warmer on average, with 10 to 50 percent more summer days over 35°C.”
Hennessy.
These new temperatures will then have a knock on effect to the seasonal products and services we require, for example winter heating will not be a necessity which could help in the fight to conserve energy. DR Tolhurst suggests that precautions need to be taken now to ensure a safe future. For example water demand, drought tolerant crops, adjusting farming dates in the calendar and heat-smart buildings are just a few things to be considered. Although it is not only us humans who will suffer through climate change, animals and plants will struggle too as Hennessy suggests:
“However, some animals and plants may be highly vulnerable to climate change, with limited options for adaptation. For example, coral reefs are likely to experience more bleaching, and some Western Australian frogs and east Australian alpine mammals will find their habitats shrinking as the temperature rises.”
Southeast Asia will also come under threat by rising sea levels eating up the coast. Scientists believe that higher temperatures will cause a sea level rise of about 20cm by the year 2027 and 65cm by the end of the century. This destruction to coastlines would have a negative effect on tourism as the disappearance of beaches would decrease the desirability of the area, and this important source of earnings would then be lost.
Sticking with the implications of climate change in this particular region it has also been suggested that the higher temperatures and rainfall patterns would probably reduce rice production. Malaysian rice yields could fall by around 20%. In turn if changing patterns of production in other countries did not compensate for this shortfall, the world price of rice would definitely increase. This is due to Thailand currently accounting for about one third of the international market. In the Southeast Asia region a slight change in the environment could have serious social consequences. For example if local farmers and fisherman cannot afford to adapt to these changes they may think about relocating, causing further problems to the area. This spontaneous migration could result in widespread destitution further harming the environment.
Figure 14:Climate prediction web site
In 1999 scientist Myles Allen suggested to run a simulation of climate, many times like they do with the weather. This initially thought then came out to produce the most detailed climate projection ever undertaken (see figure 14). It required people to volunteer to leave their computers on for 6 months to run the model. Twenty thousand people joined within a couple of days with then the BBC backing some research.
Using this model he has come out with consequences for Britain and how climate change will affect us. His findings seem to back up previous forecasts on climate change, for example the model came out with the prediction that the hot summer of 2003 is 25 times more likely to recur by 2020. Again it is suggested that living with climate change will be expensive as farmers have to adapt and changes made to cope. If you look at the previous problem faced by Southeast Asia and tourism, the model suggests that the British seaside could become more popular not only as the sea takes more land but with tourists avoiding the immense heat of over places.
Politics
The power of international markets in the year 2007 is nothing new; however their control over government decisions and society today is what is changing. Global forces are having a growing impact on national governments and so the welfare state in the UK has been giving away to the market state. The government is adopting market principles to help individuals survive and flourish. For example in New Labour, the state gives away fewer handouts and more hand ups. The government’s central task now is to enable individuals to survive these global forces. For this aim to be achieved more people are getting involved. Politicians not only have to talk to their people in other governments but have to involve organisations such as the World Health Organisation. Future implications of this new trend maybe that the markets will transform the states, for example privately owned water and electric companies can comply but could have the power to higher their prices.
The growing role of market forces in government may strengthen consumerism. This will be due to a bigger choice in services available, encouraging us to view health and education as consumer products. Individuals will look at the government and judge them on whether their services are good at meeting consumer demands; this has already started to happen. Alternatively personal needs of each individual will be the main focus with a personalisation agenda supporting citizen values.
According to an article published by tomorrow’s project, public services will increasingly compete in a global market. Some state schools may recruit pupils from abroad to broaden their pupil mix and support from the local economy, this enables them to get more money and benefits for their school. Similar changes are likely to follow in the health sector, for example disabled people offered a personal budget to spend on household care as they see fit, rather than having to accept the forms of care offered by the state. People are increasingly travelling further a field for surgery to get the best offer.
A question of the internet affecting company taxation has been put up. There has been strong opposition to taxing transactions on the net, however new forms of online taxation will probably be developed. Using the US as an example, Robert Solow, Brad DeLong, Robert Hormats and Bob Kerrey a panel from the New School University have debated this question, forecasting the following. A consumption tax is likely to come; Robert Shapiro predicts firstly a carbon tax (see figure 9) to address global warming and secondly a tax to solely pay for medical costs.
Figure 9: Possible costs of a new carbon tax
Countries will definitely have to pull together in the future to co-operate on issues. For example they will need to work together to solve global issues such as terrorism, although countries like America and China are still likely to make up their own rules. This co-operating will require governments to widen their networking, as decision making becomes more complicated and time consuming.
Security measures will also be increased by the year 2027, with aspects of everyday life being monitored. A researched article written by Paul Lashmar, published by the Guardian suggests that checks like taking urine and blood samples will be in force in the workplace with follow up messages and advice in email inboxes. For example, there has already been a recent ruling by the House of Lords that allows the police to take DNA samples of suspects even if they are not charged. He believes alongside many others that the increased threat of terrorism and the want for the protection of children has been used as the reason for this level of privacy invasion. Simon Davies, of Privacy International is concerned that this increasing level of government surveillance will compromise are privacy.
“The default has clearly shifted from privacy to surveillance. Almost all large government projects attempt to compromise the right of privacy.”
The political shift over the past twenty years is definitely paving the way for a new open future. Conor Gearty, the director of the Centre for the Study of Human Rights at the London School of Economics is worried that we will spiral towards Big Brother (see figure 10) and the repressive state. Today’s government anti-crime legislation could be the base of our futures repressive state and as the government is coming under more threat this could raise global tension. This therefore putting the question of Britains security under scrutiny.
Figure 10: Fears of a big brother reality
For many though the most important aspect of this change will be overwhelming surveillance rather than political control. For example if you have a weight problem the government could in the future have the power to limit what food you buy.
As well as the government the new advances in technology is allowing for new measures of security (see figure 11). For example facial recognition for CCTV is in its early stages but has already been tested in London, along with gene surveillance. All this amazing technology will be at the service of the government in the future.
Figure 11: could increased security prove too much?
The growing role of market forces in government may strengthen consumerism. This will be due to a bigger choice in services available, encouraging us to view health and education as consumer products. Individuals will look at the government and judge them on whether their services are good at meeting consumer demands; this has already started to happen. Alternatively personal needs of each individual will be the main focus with a personalisation agenda supporting citizen values.
According to an article published by tomorrow’s project, public services will increasingly compete in a global market. Some state schools may recruit pupils from abroad to broaden their pupil mix and support from the local economy, this enables them to get more money and benefits for their school. Similar changes are likely to follow in the health sector, for example disabled people offered a personal budget to spend on household care as they see fit, rather than having to accept the forms of care offered by the state. People are increasingly travelling further a field for surgery to get the best offer.
A question of the internet affecting company taxation has been put up. There has been strong opposition to taxing transactions on the net, however new forms of online taxation will probably be developed. Using the US as an example, Robert Solow, Brad DeLong, Robert Hormats and Bob Kerrey a panel from the New School University have debated this question, forecasting the following. A consumption tax is likely to come; Robert Shapiro predicts firstly a carbon tax (see figure 9) to address global warming and secondly a tax to solely pay for medical costs.
Figure 9: Possible costs of a new carbon tax
Countries will definitely have to pull together in the future to co-operate on issues. For example they will need to work together to solve global issues such as terrorism, although countries like America and China are still likely to make up their own rules. This co-operating will require governments to widen their networking, as decision making becomes more complicated and time consuming.
Security measures will also be increased by the year 2027, with aspects of everyday life being monitored. A researched article written by Paul Lashmar, published by the Guardian suggests that checks like taking urine and blood samples will be in force in the workplace with follow up messages and advice in email inboxes. For example, there has already been a recent ruling by the House of Lords that allows the police to take DNA samples of suspects even if they are not charged. He believes alongside many others that the increased threat of terrorism and the want for the protection of children has been used as the reason for this level of privacy invasion. Simon Davies, of Privacy International is concerned that this increasing level of government surveillance will compromise are privacy.
“The default has clearly shifted from privacy to surveillance. Almost all large government projects attempt to compromise the right of privacy.”
The political shift over the past twenty years is definitely paving the way for a new open future. Conor Gearty, the director of the Centre for the Study of Human Rights at the London School of Economics is worried that we will spiral towards Big Brother (see figure 10) and the repressive state. Today’s government anti-crime legislation could be the base of our futures repressive state and as the government is coming under more threat this could raise global tension. This therefore putting the question of Britains security under scrutiny.
Figure 10: Fears of a big brother reality
For many though the most important aspect of this change will be overwhelming surveillance rather than political control. For example if you have a weight problem the government could in the future have the power to limit what food you buy.
As well as the government the new advances in technology is allowing for new measures of security (see figure 11). For example facial recognition for CCTV is in its early stages but has already been tested in London, along with gene surveillance. All this amazing technology will be at the service of the government in the future.
Figure 11: could increased security prove too much?
Technology
There is a definite link between health and technology and Battelle predicts many genetic-based health care methods. Battelle, a world renowned technology organisation based in Ohio has done extensive research into this idea coming up with several possible future treatments. Battelle predicts the importance of computers, cancer eating machines, designer foods and cloned humans.
“But in the years ahead, new technologies will become much more personalised, and they will closely affect almost every aspect of our lives. We see advances in information and biological technologies brining us into a more intimate relationship with nature and with each other. From cloned human organs, to personalised public transportation to computers and sensors embedded in our bodies, we will become intertwined with technology”.
Here Stephen Millett, Battelle’s leading manager looking into what could change in the next 20 years.
Genetic-based medical and health care over the next 20 years will give us the ability to detect and correct many genetic-based diseases before their arise, even in the earlier stages in the womb. With these new technologies becoming much more personalised we will be in affect receiving the ultimate in individualised care. For example with your doctor having a record of your genetic makeup they in turn may be able to prescribe medication and diets to fit your own needs. Battelle along with many other research organisations looking towards the 2020 decade predicts cloned humans, being able to grow organs and used in transplants, see previous research on health.
High- power energy packages and new energy sources will most definitely be in place as fossil fuels run out. Advanced batteries and fuel cells will make our electronic products and appliances highly mobile. The inability of conventional battery technology to provide sufficient energy to meet future demands is recognised by many sectors; the military and developing nations. For example future military requirements of needing multiple batteries are widely recognised with the DARPA looking into alternatives. The future soldier is likely to have several pieces of electrical equipment with them, for example computers, personal radios, global positioning systems and thermal imaging equipment. The UK future infantry soldier technology program (FIST) estimates that they will need 30 watts each over 3 days. Therefore Batteries of the future will use carbon nano-tubes as electrodes; this will maximise the energy density of devices (see figure 6). Computers will be everywhere, embedded in our clothing and maybe even under our skin (see figure 7).
Figure 6:A nano tube paper battery
Figure 7: A chip embedded into a trainer
Genetically modified food will continue to grow, and our shelves with be filled with designer foods, that will be able to resist disease and pests. Most food sold in the supermarkets will have come from genetically engineered fruits, vegetables and livestock. Even cotton and wool for our clothing will be genetically engineered.
In the future media technology will most definitely be everywhere. The tomorrow project predicts that “smart tags” will be at the heart of this communications media. Smart tags (see figure 8) will use a chip, tiny in size and be able to a number of different jobs, from tracking human movement to informing us of purchases and environmental conditions. Smarts tags could also make electronic cash possible, whereby payment is immediate. This is already being trialled for travel payments by Pilots in London. Smarts tags will also be used for road usage with either the car itself being chipped or the owner sent a bill or a card will be slotted behind the cars tag.
Figure 8:A tracking smart tag of the future
With this tracking idea it will be possible to increase surveillance and security, for example with parents tracking their children. Airports have already implemented this new technology, using RFID tags on baggage. Similarly these tags will help us to care for older people, installing sensor to track their movements and medication taken.
New technology and media products may increasing favour monopolies. As companies grow and increase their market share it allows customers to get a cheaper price for their products and services therefore making it difficult for new media companies to join and innovate. The Tomorrow Network fears for this new surge in media technology and to impact it will have on us a society, for example it may lead to individual isolation. The development of new websites such as my space and facebook alongside fantasy worlds such as new life is encouraging teenagers to spend more time online rather than enjoying real life social interactions. My space is the fifth most viewed website in America, allowing 56 million members to create online profiles meeting people with shared interests.
“It’s about identity information – how I fit into society, who am I? It’s a new forum for hanging out that creates new publics. The burger joints where kids used to meet are done and malls are now banning teenagers who are not with adults. This is the sort of place where they are going instead”.
Here Danah Boyd from the University of California looks into these new websites.
With like minded people being able to meet on the internet, there is also a fear of segmentation. Personalised information, news and entertainment may segment individuals into bubbles of similar people. Therefore news may be filtered specifically to suit your interests. There is a question of whether the internet will open up the divide between different groups through things like blogs and online discussions or will it be harder to build connections between different social groups?
This treat of individual or group isolation poses the question whether or not the virtual world will define the natural one? As media technologies make available more new visual images from around the world, what is natural may be defined as what we see online. People will expect to be constantly entertained.
The invention of nanotechnology is a major contribution to how we will live in the decade 2020. Nanotechnology deals with particles whose size is in the range of 1 -100 nanometres (one millionth of an mm). It is a relatively new breakthrough science, combining the principle of chemistry, biology and physics to propose microscopic devices on a nano-scale that manipulate atoms and molecules. Examples of their unique function are the construction of new materials, eradication of diseases and restoration of the environment – scrubbing the air of carbon dioxide. Nano-medicine can also be along nano robots to repair maladies for example cancer. Robots will also be used for convience, eliminating chores with home robots being the next consumer “must have” by 2020. Competition will however come from smart dressing materials. At the University of New South Wales in Sydney they are developing self-cleaning surfaces. These surfaces will be coated with particles that absorb ultraviolet light at a particular wavelength. These surfaces will be used in kitchen, bathrooms and most importantly hospitals.
Artificially intelligence is also a contender, improving speech recognition and game playing in the future. AI is the science and engineering of making intelligent machines and computer programs. Game playing obviously already exists today, however by the year 2025 game/scenario play will be a common occurrence. This would allow you to play against the best, with the computer having the increased intelligence and knowledge of all the moves.
Speech recognition will also improve, with it already being tested in flights. In addition a computers understanding of the natural language, so a universal translator and speech to text capability will be in place. So we could use text format English, not having to be completely accurate.
“But in the years ahead, new technologies will become much more personalised, and they will closely affect almost every aspect of our lives. We see advances in information and biological technologies brining us into a more intimate relationship with nature and with each other. From cloned human organs, to personalised public transportation to computers and sensors embedded in our bodies, we will become intertwined with technology”.
Here Stephen Millett, Battelle’s leading manager looking into what could change in the next 20 years.
Genetic-based medical and health care over the next 20 years will give us the ability to detect and correct many genetic-based diseases before their arise, even in the earlier stages in the womb. With these new technologies becoming much more personalised we will be in affect receiving the ultimate in individualised care. For example with your doctor having a record of your genetic makeup they in turn may be able to prescribe medication and diets to fit your own needs. Battelle along with many other research organisations looking towards the 2020 decade predicts cloned humans, being able to grow organs and used in transplants, see previous research on health.
High- power energy packages and new energy sources will most definitely be in place as fossil fuels run out. Advanced batteries and fuel cells will make our electronic products and appliances highly mobile. The inability of conventional battery technology to provide sufficient energy to meet future demands is recognised by many sectors; the military and developing nations. For example future military requirements of needing multiple batteries are widely recognised with the DARPA looking into alternatives. The future soldier is likely to have several pieces of electrical equipment with them, for example computers, personal radios, global positioning systems and thermal imaging equipment. The UK future infantry soldier technology program (FIST) estimates that they will need 30 watts each over 3 days. Therefore Batteries of the future will use carbon nano-tubes as electrodes; this will maximise the energy density of devices (see figure 6). Computers will be everywhere, embedded in our clothing and maybe even under our skin (see figure 7).
Figure 6:A nano tube paper battery
Figure 7: A chip embedded into a trainer
Genetically modified food will continue to grow, and our shelves with be filled with designer foods, that will be able to resist disease and pests. Most food sold in the supermarkets will have come from genetically engineered fruits, vegetables and livestock. Even cotton and wool for our clothing will be genetically engineered.
In the future media technology will most definitely be everywhere. The tomorrow project predicts that “smart tags” will be at the heart of this communications media. Smart tags (see figure 8) will use a chip, tiny in size and be able to a number of different jobs, from tracking human movement to informing us of purchases and environmental conditions. Smarts tags could also make electronic cash possible, whereby payment is immediate. This is already being trialled for travel payments by Pilots in London. Smarts tags will also be used for road usage with either the car itself being chipped or the owner sent a bill or a card will be slotted behind the cars tag.
Figure 8:A tracking smart tag of the future
With this tracking idea it will be possible to increase surveillance and security, for example with parents tracking their children. Airports have already implemented this new technology, using RFID tags on baggage. Similarly these tags will help us to care for older people, installing sensor to track their movements and medication taken.
New technology and media products may increasing favour monopolies. As companies grow and increase their market share it allows customers to get a cheaper price for their products and services therefore making it difficult for new media companies to join and innovate. The Tomorrow Network fears for this new surge in media technology and to impact it will have on us a society, for example it may lead to individual isolation. The development of new websites such as my space and facebook alongside fantasy worlds such as new life is encouraging teenagers to spend more time online rather than enjoying real life social interactions. My space is the fifth most viewed website in America, allowing 56 million members to create online profiles meeting people with shared interests.
“It’s about identity information – how I fit into society, who am I? It’s a new forum for hanging out that creates new publics. The burger joints where kids used to meet are done and malls are now banning teenagers who are not with adults. This is the sort of place where they are going instead”.
Here Danah Boyd from the University of California looks into these new websites.
With like minded people being able to meet on the internet, there is also a fear of segmentation. Personalised information, news and entertainment may segment individuals into bubbles of similar people. Therefore news may be filtered specifically to suit your interests. There is a question of whether the internet will open up the divide between different groups through things like blogs and online discussions or will it be harder to build connections between different social groups?
This treat of individual or group isolation poses the question whether or not the virtual world will define the natural one? As media technologies make available more new visual images from around the world, what is natural may be defined as what we see online. People will expect to be constantly entertained.
The invention of nanotechnology is a major contribution to how we will live in the decade 2020. Nanotechnology deals with particles whose size is in the range of 1 -100 nanometres (one millionth of an mm). It is a relatively new breakthrough science, combining the principle of chemistry, biology and physics to propose microscopic devices on a nano-scale that manipulate atoms and molecules. Examples of their unique function are the construction of new materials, eradication of diseases and restoration of the environment – scrubbing the air of carbon dioxide. Nano-medicine can also be along nano robots to repair maladies for example cancer. Robots will also be used for convience, eliminating chores with home robots being the next consumer “must have” by 2020. Competition will however come from smart dressing materials. At the University of New South Wales in Sydney they are developing self-cleaning surfaces. These surfaces will be coated with particles that absorb ultraviolet light at a particular wavelength. These surfaces will be used in kitchen, bathrooms and most importantly hospitals.
Artificially intelligence is also a contender, improving speech recognition and game playing in the future. AI is the science and engineering of making intelligent machines and computer programs. Game playing obviously already exists today, however by the year 2025 game/scenario play will be a common occurrence. This would allow you to play against the best, with the computer having the increased intelligence and knowledge of all the moves.
Speech recognition will also improve, with it already being tested in flights. In addition a computers understanding of the natural language, so a universal translator and speech to text capability will be in place. So we could use text format English, not having to be completely accurate.
Health
After researching into the probable outcome of our nation’s state of health in the decade 2027 it seems to all link back to the impending obesity epidemic. This growing problem creates many other health issues along with it. The Guardian reports that there will be many more blind people and the sight of amputees will become much more common.
The report issued from the House of Commons’ Health Committee concludes that it will be the first generation where children die before their parents as a consequence of childhood obesity. This will due to a much more fast pace of living, where quantity and the convenience factor win over healthier options (see figure 4). Children will continue to spend less time in direct contact with nature, therefore lacking in physical fitness causing worries of hyperactivity and attention deficit that in turn create their own worries.
Figure 4: A few of the fast food outlets adding to the problem
Following this worry of increased cases of ADHD and hyperactivity, a forecast of a mental health crisis is questioned. Medical expects are predicting a future of growing mental health issues due to gradual changes in the national UK diet and poor lifestyle choices over the last 20 years. Dr Malcolm Peet at the University of Sheffield predicts that changes in farming and food techniques, such as feeding livestock on processed grain instead of essential grass will decrease the presence of the essential acids we need, with a low consumption of fruit and vegetables not helping the problem.
Obesity is a direct link into diabetes and also heart disease, hence the previous prediction of blindness and amputees, as these are possible side effects. This type of lifestyle also puts us at risk of stokes and cancer as this threat continues to rise.
“The situation across the Atlantic is even worse. Will obesity-related diseases increase in the UK as well? I’d say that will happen and they will be coming on progressively earlier in people’s lives.”
This statement comes from Jane Wardle, a professor of psychology who works in the Cancer Research UK health behaviour unit in London.
However in the future we will have the power to eliminate many of these problems through new technological advances. For example we will be able to create disease-free embryos, having the option to choose our future child’s health and breed out certain genetically determined conditions.
Figure 5: cosmetic surgery used as a fashion accessory
Further advancement in technology will also increase the likelihood and availability of us having plastic surgery. People will think of surgery as a lifestyle choice, with it being a consumer purchase (see figure 5). Vivienne Parry of the Guardian reports that this path has already been set by the media, for example of dramas and reality TV shows. A major flaw in this type of surgery has been the risk of rejection. Although by the year 2027 tissue engineering will have been corrected, enabling a patient to have a body part grown to order using unique cell tissue. This advancement of being able to grow bone and skin in 3D shape will undeniably change the practice of science. Research carried out by Professor Mark Ferguson and his team at Manchester University has helped in the development of drugs to prevent scarring after healing, being available from 2020 onwards.
On the downside there is a worry that by 2020 the private sector will have taken all the talented surgeons leaving the NHS with a shortage; this is a real possibility with this already happening in the US.
After finding that the population will be an ageing one in 2020 disability becomes much more prevalent, particularly chronic disability which will put stress on medical care. Disability will show at a much younger age, which will be tomorrow’s elderly therefore increasing health care costs.
A cure of cancer has always been at the forefront of our nation’s health care priorities and although a cure is not mentioned as yet progressing research is said to give us more treatments. Robert Weinberg, based at the Whitehead Institute of Technology in Boston believes that previous finding like the Human Genome Project, which has providing researchers with a complete inventory of all the human genes will make it increasingly easier to design drugs that attack very specific tumours.
“My guess is that about 25% of cancers that currently are fatal will be treated successfully, either cured or reduced to chronic but tolerable conditions”
Weinberg on cancer cures.
This optimism is shared by many other researchers, for example Ian Fraser, a cancer expert at the University of Queensland focuses his attention on possible vaccines against chronic infections before they lead to cancer. He predicts that these vaccines will be in place by 2020, eliminating infections such as hepatitis C, which leads to liver cancer and Leukaemia also leading to a HTLV-1 cancer. The revolutionary technology of stem cell science and cloning could also be used to create neurons, heart muscle and pancreatic tissue for patients, using cells from their own skin.
The report issued from the House of Commons’ Health Committee concludes that it will be the first generation where children die before their parents as a consequence of childhood obesity. This will due to a much more fast pace of living, where quantity and the convenience factor win over healthier options (see figure 4). Children will continue to spend less time in direct contact with nature, therefore lacking in physical fitness causing worries of hyperactivity and attention deficit that in turn create their own worries.
Figure 4: A few of the fast food outlets adding to the problem
Following this worry of increased cases of ADHD and hyperactivity, a forecast of a mental health crisis is questioned. Medical expects are predicting a future of growing mental health issues due to gradual changes in the national UK diet and poor lifestyle choices over the last 20 years. Dr Malcolm Peet at the University of Sheffield predicts that changes in farming and food techniques, such as feeding livestock on processed grain instead of essential grass will decrease the presence of the essential acids we need, with a low consumption of fruit and vegetables not helping the problem.
Obesity is a direct link into diabetes and also heart disease, hence the previous prediction of blindness and amputees, as these are possible side effects. This type of lifestyle also puts us at risk of stokes and cancer as this threat continues to rise.
“The situation across the Atlantic is even worse. Will obesity-related diseases increase in the UK as well? I’d say that will happen and they will be coming on progressively earlier in people’s lives.”
This statement comes from Jane Wardle, a professor of psychology who works in the Cancer Research UK health behaviour unit in London.
However in the future we will have the power to eliminate many of these problems through new technological advances. For example we will be able to create disease-free embryos, having the option to choose our future child’s health and breed out certain genetically determined conditions.
Figure 5: cosmetic surgery used as a fashion accessory
Further advancement in technology will also increase the likelihood and availability of us having plastic surgery. People will think of surgery as a lifestyle choice, with it being a consumer purchase (see figure 5). Vivienne Parry of the Guardian reports that this path has already been set by the media, for example of dramas and reality TV shows. A major flaw in this type of surgery has been the risk of rejection. Although by the year 2027 tissue engineering will have been corrected, enabling a patient to have a body part grown to order using unique cell tissue. This advancement of being able to grow bone and skin in 3D shape will undeniably change the practice of science. Research carried out by Professor Mark Ferguson and his team at Manchester University has helped in the development of drugs to prevent scarring after healing, being available from 2020 onwards.
On the downside there is a worry that by 2020 the private sector will have taken all the talented surgeons leaving the NHS with a shortage; this is a real possibility with this already happening in the US.
After finding that the population will be an ageing one in 2020 disability becomes much more prevalent, particularly chronic disability which will put stress on medical care. Disability will show at a much younger age, which will be tomorrow’s elderly therefore increasing health care costs.
A cure of cancer has always been at the forefront of our nation’s health care priorities and although a cure is not mentioned as yet progressing research is said to give us more treatments. Robert Weinberg, based at the Whitehead Institute of Technology in Boston believes that previous finding like the Human Genome Project, which has providing researchers with a complete inventory of all the human genes will make it increasingly easier to design drugs that attack very specific tumours.
“My guess is that about 25% of cancers that currently are fatal will be treated successfully, either cured or reduced to chronic but tolerable conditions”
Weinberg on cancer cures.
This optimism is shared by many other researchers, for example Ian Fraser, a cancer expert at the University of Queensland focuses his attention on possible vaccines against chronic infections before they lead to cancer. He predicts that these vaccines will be in place by 2020, eliminating infections such as hepatitis C, which leads to liver cancer and Leukaemia also leading to a HTLV-1 cancer. The revolutionary technology of stem cell science and cloning could also be used to create neurons, heart muscle and pancreatic tissue for patients, using cells from their own skin.
Economy
A rapid rise in global warming is a definite as researchers have now found that the Southern Ocean is absorbing a continually decreasing proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This excess carbon dioxide which cannot be absorbed by the oceans, then remains in the atmosphere, in turn accelerating global warming.
With this being one of the world’s natural carbon sinks, scientists from the countries Britain, France and Germany are worried as their findings have shown this area weakened by man’s own actions.
In Totterdell, a climate modeller at the Met Office Hadley Centre describes this current research as “an important piece of work” saying:
“This is the first time we have been able to get convincing evidence that a change in the uptake of CO2 by the oceans is linked to climate change. It is one of many feedbacks we didn’t expect to kick in until some way into the 21st century”.
Figure 1: carbon emission sinks
The Southern Ocean is the world’s biggest marine carbon sink (see figure 1), accounting for 15% of all the carbon taken out of the atmosphere. Temperatures are already predicted to rise by around 1.5 C by 2030. This is without taking into account further emissions caused by other factors, for example the growth of fossil fuel plants in China and India.
Looking into the problem of other countries consumsion of fuel, statistics have arisen from Boeing stating that India will require 911 new commercial planes from 2007 to 2027 worth over $86 billion. Boeing’s annual current market outlook has had to upgrade India’s figures for the next 20 years, recognising that the booming economies like China, Japan and Malaysia are well ahead in the requirements of commercial aeroplanes. These new figures have arisen due to the robust economic growth and increasing demand for domestic and international air travel (see figure 2).
Figure 2: A graph to show increase in travel demand
Mark Leonard of the Guardian reckons that by 2020 China will be on the verge of dominating the US as the world’s leading economic power.
“When a speeding freight train is heading towards you, you either get on board or you get out of the way. We want to get on board. The locomotive is China, whose economy is forecast to become the second largest in the world by 2016 and to have overtaken America by 2041”.
It is becoming clear of the immense power China have and that they are no longer easily manipulated. China’s welfare is so deep rooted into the international order that its welfare affects the hope and dreams of others across the world. China is well on its way of becoming America’s chief banker and if Beijing stopped buying dollars, the US currency would collapse. The security analyst Francois Heisburg has compared this hold on the currency to a nuclear weapon:
“Breaking the dollar would be the functional equivalent of using a nuclear weapon”.
This mutual dependency is so strong that the thought of war would be highly unlikely but as China grows, the balance of power will continue to shift to the east with more Americans following. So as we look to the year 2020 although China faces problems such as its environment the US must recognise its strength as a support to themselves.
With the growth of its military and economics there is also the issue of its power over new ideas and their ability to shape the world. China’s western values and culture will continue to define the rules of the world. On the other hand with China’s increasing growth comes some negatives one being its increasing population. Its one child policy has created a shortage of female babies and so the government admits that by 2020 China might have around 40 million single men, posing a very dangerous threat to social stability.
Looking into the idea of stabilising society, David Aaronovitch from the Guardian reports of a demand to create idealised communities of the 50’s. This idea has been put into practice in America and it has been estimated recently that 7 million households have “forted up” by going to live in gated communities, protected by fences and security guards. Affluent black people have been found to be less likely to like in gated communities than their white or Hispanic counterparts, maybe due to their own experience of past exclusion. Currently smaller acts of exclusion are favoured, for example in the restoration of a threatened neighbour rather than walled cities. But if it becomes to be a weapon of only resort, then by 2020 we will have created shanty towns, inhabited by those whom we have decided we don’t want among us.
Similarly the growth of the “supercity” is upon us with around 100 emerging around the world. A “supercity” has a population of over 1 million people, has a capability of meeting the physical and social needs of its residents, for example shelter and its has a healthy and dynamic environment suitable for jobs. Looking into the decade 2020 onwards it is predicted that future supercities will be that of India, China, Thailand and Spain.
Immigration will pose a big factor in the change in society in 2020 -2030. The policy will be founded on the fact of our ageing society as Britain will have fewer people of working age trying to support a growing number of retired people. Government figures suggests that by 2020 there will be 20% more older people than younger adults (see figure 3). The majority of people in their 60’s and 70’s will be healthy and active, demanding more consumer items and personal services with increased leisure time. Therefore Britain is likely to encourage immigration as according to the United Nations Report it is estimated that Britain needs to attract a million people a year between now and 2050 to maintain a balance between the workforce and the retired population.
Figure 3:A graph to show the aging population of the future
A team of demographers at Manchester University estimate that the number of white people in Birmingham will be overtaken by the number of those with other ethic origins by 2027. These different ethic groups will assimilate into a “common identity” with us having to adapt as a country to meet the needs of our new neighbours. For example cross-cultural communication will be considered, where children at school learn more languages.
With this being one of the world’s natural carbon sinks, scientists from the countries Britain, France and Germany are worried as their findings have shown this area weakened by man’s own actions.
In Totterdell, a climate modeller at the Met Office Hadley Centre describes this current research as “an important piece of work” saying:
“This is the first time we have been able to get convincing evidence that a change in the uptake of CO2 by the oceans is linked to climate change. It is one of many feedbacks we didn’t expect to kick in until some way into the 21st century”.
Figure 1: carbon emission sinks
The Southern Ocean is the world’s biggest marine carbon sink (see figure 1), accounting for 15% of all the carbon taken out of the atmosphere. Temperatures are already predicted to rise by around 1.5 C by 2030. This is without taking into account further emissions caused by other factors, for example the growth of fossil fuel plants in China and India.
Looking into the problem of other countries consumsion of fuel, statistics have arisen from Boeing stating that India will require 911 new commercial planes from 2007 to 2027 worth over $86 billion. Boeing’s annual current market outlook has had to upgrade India’s figures for the next 20 years, recognising that the booming economies like China, Japan and Malaysia are well ahead in the requirements of commercial aeroplanes. These new figures have arisen due to the robust economic growth and increasing demand for domestic and international air travel (see figure 2).
Figure 2: A graph to show increase in travel demand
Mark Leonard of the Guardian reckons that by 2020 China will be on the verge of dominating the US as the world’s leading economic power.
“When a speeding freight train is heading towards you, you either get on board or you get out of the way. We want to get on board. The locomotive is China, whose economy is forecast to become the second largest in the world by 2016 and to have overtaken America by 2041”.
It is becoming clear of the immense power China have and that they are no longer easily manipulated. China’s welfare is so deep rooted into the international order that its welfare affects the hope and dreams of others across the world. China is well on its way of becoming America’s chief banker and if Beijing stopped buying dollars, the US currency would collapse. The security analyst Francois Heisburg has compared this hold on the currency to a nuclear weapon:
“Breaking the dollar would be the functional equivalent of using a nuclear weapon”.
This mutual dependency is so strong that the thought of war would be highly unlikely but as China grows, the balance of power will continue to shift to the east with more Americans following. So as we look to the year 2020 although China faces problems such as its environment the US must recognise its strength as a support to themselves.
With the growth of its military and economics there is also the issue of its power over new ideas and their ability to shape the world. China’s western values and culture will continue to define the rules of the world. On the other hand with China’s increasing growth comes some negatives one being its increasing population. Its one child policy has created a shortage of female babies and so the government admits that by 2020 China might have around 40 million single men, posing a very dangerous threat to social stability.
Looking into the idea of stabilising society, David Aaronovitch from the Guardian reports of a demand to create idealised communities of the 50’s. This idea has been put into practice in America and it has been estimated recently that 7 million households have “forted up” by going to live in gated communities, protected by fences and security guards. Affluent black people have been found to be less likely to like in gated communities than their white or Hispanic counterparts, maybe due to their own experience of past exclusion. Currently smaller acts of exclusion are favoured, for example in the restoration of a threatened neighbour rather than walled cities. But if it becomes to be a weapon of only resort, then by 2020 we will have created shanty towns, inhabited by those whom we have decided we don’t want among us.
Similarly the growth of the “supercity” is upon us with around 100 emerging around the world. A “supercity” has a population of over 1 million people, has a capability of meeting the physical and social needs of its residents, for example shelter and its has a healthy and dynamic environment suitable for jobs. Looking into the decade 2020 onwards it is predicted that future supercities will be that of India, China, Thailand and Spain.
Immigration will pose a big factor in the change in society in 2020 -2030. The policy will be founded on the fact of our ageing society as Britain will have fewer people of working age trying to support a growing number of retired people. Government figures suggests that by 2020 there will be 20% more older people than younger adults (see figure 3). The majority of people in their 60’s and 70’s will be healthy and active, demanding more consumer items and personal services with increased leisure time. Therefore Britain is likely to encourage immigration as according to the United Nations Report it is estimated that Britain needs to attract a million people a year between now and 2050 to maintain a balance between the workforce and the retired population.
Figure 3:A graph to show the aging population of the future
A team of demographers at Manchester University estimate that the number of white people in Birmingham will be overtaken by the number of those with other ethic origins by 2027. These different ethic groups will assimilate into a “common identity” with us having to adapt as a country to meet the needs of our new neighbours. For example cross-cultural communication will be considered, where children at school learn more languages.
Introduction
Looking into the future at the decade 2020 I will uncover how society will have changed and the type of world we will be living in.
Firstly I will look into society as a whole, looking at the changes in economy. I will focus on not only the factors such as global warming and pollution but the issues of immigration and how this will change society along with the possibility of a shift of power to the east.
I have also chosen to look at health and how an obesity epidemic will unfold and how the advances in technology will affect treatment for diseases and our choices on cosmetic looks and at birth. I would also like to look at how strong we will be and to what extent all the other factors have on our mental health and general emotional well being.
Thirdly I will focus on new technology, not only looking at new inventions but also how the government will control them and how we obtain access for example security and tracking. I am also particularly interested in Nano technology and what this will bring.
I will also turn to the politics of our future; particularly focusing on what the government will have control over and to what extent this has on our personal interests and privacy. I will also look like how tax will change and whether new taxes could be in force.
Finally I will considered climate change and what the weather will be like and how this could affect tourism and the rest of the world. Also I would like to look into new energy sources and the problem and possible solutions.
Firstly I will look into society as a whole, looking at the changes in economy. I will focus on not only the factors such as global warming and pollution but the issues of immigration and how this will change society along with the possibility of a shift of power to the east.
I have also chosen to look at health and how an obesity epidemic will unfold and how the advances in technology will affect treatment for diseases and our choices on cosmetic looks and at birth. I would also like to look at how strong we will be and to what extent all the other factors have on our mental health and general emotional well being.
Thirdly I will focus on new technology, not only looking at new inventions but also how the government will control them and how we obtain access for example security and tracking. I am also particularly interested in Nano technology and what this will bring.
I will also turn to the politics of our future; particularly focusing on what the government will have control over and to what extent this has on our personal interests and privacy. I will also look like how tax will change and whether new taxes could be in force.
Finally I will considered climate change and what the weather will be like and how this could affect tourism and the rest of the world. Also I would like to look into new energy sources and the problem and possible solutions.
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