With this being one of the world’s natural carbon sinks, scientists from the countries Britain, France and Germany are worried as their findings have shown this area weakened by man’s own actions.
In Totterdell, a climate modeller at the Met Office Hadley Centre describes this current research as “an important piece of work” saying:
“This is the first time we have been able to get convincing evidence that a change in the uptake of CO2 by the oceans is linked to climate change. It is one of many feedbacks we didn’t expect to kick in until some way into the 21st century”.
Figure 1: carbon emission sinks
The Southern Ocean is the world’s biggest marine carbon sink (see figure 1), accounting for 15% of all the carbon taken out of the atmosphere. Temperatures are already predicted to rise by around 1.5 C by 2030. This is without taking into account further emissions caused by other factors, for example the growth of fossil fuel plants in China and India.
Looking into the problem of other countries consumsion of fuel, statistics have arisen from Boeing stating that India will require 911 new commercial planes from 2007 to 2027 worth over $86 billion. Boeing’s annual current market outlook has had to upgrade India’s figures for the next 20 years, recognising that the booming economies like China, Japan and Malaysia are well ahead in the requirements of commercial aeroplanes. These new figures have arisen due to the robust economic growth and increasing demand for domestic and international air travel (see figure 2).
Figure 2: A graph to show increase in travel demand
Mark Leonard of the Guardian reckons that by 2020 China will be on the verge of dominating the US as the world’s leading economic power.
“When a speeding freight train is heading towards you, you either get on board or you get out of the way. We want to get on board. The locomotive is China, whose economy is forecast to become the second largest in the world by 2016 and to have overtaken America by 2041”.
It is becoming clear of the immense power China have and that they are no longer easily manipulated. China’s welfare is so deep rooted into the international order that its welfare affects the hope and dreams of others across the world. China is well on its way of becoming America’s chief banker and if Beijing stopped buying dollars, the US currency would collapse. The security analyst Francois Heisburg has compared this hold on the currency to a nuclear weapon:
“Breaking the dollar would be the functional equivalent of using a nuclear weapon”.
This mutual dependency is so strong that the thought of war would be highly unlikely but as China grows, the balance of power will continue to shift to the east with more Americans following. So as we look to the year 2020 although China faces problems such as its environment the US must recognise its strength as a support to themselves.
With the growth of its military and economics there is also the issue of its power over new ideas and their ability to shape the world. China’s western values and culture will continue to define the rules of the world. On the other hand with China’s increasing growth comes some negatives one being its increasing population. Its one child policy has created a shortage of female babies and so the government admits that by 2020 China might have around 40 million single men, posing a very dangerous threat to social stability.
Looking into the idea of stabilising society, David Aaronovitch from the Guardian reports of a demand to create idealised communities of the 50’s. This idea has been put into practice in America and it has been estimated recently that 7 million households have “forted up” by going to live in gated communities, protected by fences and security guards. Affluent black people have been found to be less likely to like in gated communities than their white or Hispanic counterparts, maybe due to their own experience of past exclusion. Currently smaller acts of exclusion are favoured, for example in the restoration of a threatened neighbour rather than walled cities. But if it becomes to be a weapon of only resort, then by 2020 we will have created shanty towns, inhabited by those whom we have decided we don’t want among us.
Similarly the growth of the “supercity” is upon us with around 100 emerging around the world. A “supercity” has a population of over 1 million people, has a capability of meeting the physical and social needs of its residents, for example shelter and its has a healthy and dynamic environment suitable for jobs. Looking into the decade 2020 onwards it is predicted that future supercities will be that of India, China, Thailand and Spain.
Immigration will pose a big factor in the change in society in 2020 -2030. The policy will be founded on the fact of our ageing society as Britain will have fewer people of working age trying to support a growing number of retired people. Government figures suggests that by 2020 there will be 20% more older people than younger adults (see figure 3). The majority of people in their 60’s and 70’s will be healthy and active, demanding more consumer items and personal services with increased leisure time. Therefore Britain is likely to encourage immigration as according to the United Nations Report it is estimated that Britain needs to attract a million people a year between now and 2050 to maintain a balance between the workforce and the retired population.
Figure 3:A graph to show the aging population of the future
A team of demographers at Manchester University estimate that the number of white people in Birmingham will be overtaken by the number of those with other ethic origins by 2027. These different ethic groups will assimilate into a “common identity” with us having to adapt as a country to meet the needs of our new neighbours. For example cross-cultural communication will be considered, where children at school learn more languages.
